Balkans ‘Biggest Threat’ to European Stability

Dennis Blair

The Balkans will remain the biggest threat to Europe’s stability in 2010, according to the US Director of National Intelligence.

Dennis Blair delivered his warning to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence on Tuesday, February 2, highlighting Kosovo and Bosnia as potential flashpoints in the region.

In his report, Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community, he wrote: “Events in the Balkans will again pose the principal challenges to stability in Europe in 2010.

“Bosnia-Herzegovina’s continuing uneasy inter-ethnic condominium and the issue of the Serb minority in Kosovo, particularly in northern Kosovo, remain sources of tension requiring Western diplomatic and security engagement.

“We assess that the US and Europe retain significant influence in the Western Balkans. The nature of their engagement—including the ability of Washington, Brussels, and key EU member states to work together and present a common front—will importantly influence the region’s future course.”

Mr Blair said he "remained concerned" about Bosnia’s future stability, while adding that "neither widespread violence nor a formal break-up of the state appears imminent."

But he cautioned that ethnically based agendas dominated the political process, frustrating reforms because of "wrangling among the three main ethnic groups".

He added: “The sides failed to agree on legal changes proposed jointly by the EU and the US at the end of 2009, undercutting efforts to strengthen the central government so that it is capable of taking the country into NATO and the EU.”

The "growing interethnic tension" is likely to increase with elections planned for this autumn, he said.

On Kosovo, Mr Blair wrote that Pristina would remain dependent on the international community for economic and security support for the "coming years".

He wrote: “Much of the Serb population still looks to Belgrade and is resisting integration into Kosovo’s institutions, though this appears to be slowly changing in Kosovo’s south.

“Kosovo government influence in the Serb-majority area in the north of Kosovo is extremely weak.

“NATO’s presence, although reduced, is still needed to deter violence, and its mentoring of the nascent Kosovo Security Force is crucial to the force’s effectiveness and democratic development.”

He added that despite Serbia’s leaders pushing for EU membership, "Belgrade shows no sign of accepting Kosovo’s independence."

“Belgrade appears to be awaiting an advisory opinion by the International Court of Justice on the legality of Pristina’s declaration of independence — expected mid-year— before determining how to advance its claim on Kosovo,” he wrote.

“Serbia frequently turns to Moscow for political backing and economic support.”