Romania Elects a New President Sunday

Romania’s presidential elections this Sunday are important, not only because they will name the future head of state, but because whoever is elected will have a significant impact on the formation of the next government.

While neighbouring countries marked 20 years since the fall of the communism, there has been little time for sober reflections in Romania in recent weeks.

Since the collapse of former Prime Minister Emic Boc’s government last month, the country’s politicians have been locked in an increasingly confrontational debate, characterised by personal barbs and false accusations.

Not even the country’s perilous economic crisis has succeeded in overshadowing political infighting head of Sunday’s poll.

Opinion polls show that the outcome is wide open, and there is no clear favourite.

The incumbent, President Traian Basescu, leads the polls, but his victory is by no means secure in an eventual second round of voting.

A former sea captain and Bucharest mayor, Basescu, 58, has the support of over 30 per cent in opinion polls, primarily because he says he aims to clean-up the country’s murky political class, has promised improved social schemes and tax cuts starting next year.

His opponents claim Basescu is a “troublemaker”. During his term he instigated to a split in the ruling coalition which led to the current crisis that has blocked necessary reforms and has endangered a 20-billion-euro International Monetary Fund-led rescue loan.

Political infighting started in October, following the Basescu-allied Democrat-Liberal, PDL, cabinet’s decision to oust leftist Social-Democrats, PSD, from the government. Two attempts to form a new government have so far failed.
 
Mircea Geoana, 51, who leads PSD, follows Basescu closely in the polls with around 23 per cent of the votes. A former ambassador to Washington, Geoana is promising deeper social protection at a time of economic recession. He is putting lesser emphasis on fighting corruption or reforming the bureaucracy.

Analysts say corruption is still widespread, and parliament, mainly due to the support from PSD, is currently actively blocking efforts to investigate senior politicians.

The third main competitor in the elections is Crin Antonescu, 50, a former history teacher who is supported by the Liberal Party. Antonescu pledges to reduce the budget deficit, freeze utility prices and ease taxation, including a cut in the basic tax from 16 to 10 per cent.

Since none of the candidates are expected to win more than 50 percent in the first round, the top two candidates will face each other in a 6 December run-off.

The winner will have the right to name the future prime minister. In this way he will have a key role to play in influencing future public-sector reforms and finding ways to tackle the economic crisis.

No Romanian president has yet won re-election for a successive term in the past 15 years, and this time may be no exception. Taking into consideration that the PSD won the largest number of votes in the last parliamentary elections, the winner could be the party’s leader, Mircea Geoana.

In a run-off against Basescu he is most likely to collect the votes of those who had voted for the other contenders in the first round.  

Prospects after the elections are grim. In recent weeks Basescu said that he would dissolve parliament and call early parliamentary elections if he wins.

But just recently he has changed his discourse saying he has no intention of doing that. That leaves open the prospect of months of wrangling and, if a majority government opposed to Basescu emerges, there could be years of difficult co-habitation between the president and government.

A victory for Geoana or Antonescu would strengthen the likelihood of an emergence of a majority government, although the partnership between their parties who both strongly oppose Basescu, is fragile.

Whoever is elected, and whichever party subsequently forms a government will face a huge economic challenge. Romania is mired in a deep recession, dependent on a €20 billion International Monetary Fund loan signed on March. Without sufficient foreign investment and cash floating into Romania's largely foreign-owned banks to maintain lending, the country risks running out of money to pay its debts and keep the economy functioning.

But the IMF loan comes at a high social cost, as Romania has to cut around 150,000 jobs in the public sector, freeze state sector wages and cut public spending in order to cut its budget and current account deficits.