The International Community Will Never Allow Bosnia’s Dismemberment

Frane Maroevic

There is a growing trend among some commentators on the Balkans to assert that Bosnia and Herzegovina is in danger of dissolving into its component entities – partly on the grounds that nothing beyond a few economic factors now links those entities together.

In his article for Balkan Insight (“Republika Srpska: After Independence”,) on 19 November, for example, Matthew Parish cites the economic rationale that sustains Bosnia and Herzegovina: “a common currency (now pegged against the euro and remarkably stable), common transport and infrastructure, free movement of goods, people and services, harmonized legal systems, and even a common regime of indirect taxation.”

There are other, equally compelling, reasons that underpin Bosnia and Herzegovina’s long postwar recovery and its current effort to integrate fully in Euro-Atlantic structures. Among these are the fact that

•    more than 80 per cent of the population (Serbs, Croats, Bosniaks and others) want to become members of the European Union, and they understand that this can only be achieved by a functional Bosnia and Herzegovina that respects the rights of its citizens; and
•    the 55 countries and organizations of the Peace Implementation Council, PIC, as well as the UN Security Council collectively unanimously guarantee the Dayton Peace Agreement, which upholds the sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina within its present borders.

It is true that the country is in the midst of a major political and economic crisis. In the first half of this year, exports and imports fell by almost a quarter; Foreign Direct Investment is down by more than 50 per cent compared to 2008, and tax revenue has fallen by 7.8 per cent in the Federation and by 12.9 per cent in the Republika Srpska. Worst of all: almost 50,000 jobs have been lost since the end of last year: a quarter of the population is now unemployed.

This catastrophic downturn has been caused not only by the world recession and but also by the steadfast refusal of BiH leaders to focus on economic issues.

The economic challenge has been compounded by crime and corruption – twin scourges that the BiH judicial authorities with the assistance of international judges and prosecutors are struggling to overcome.

It is astonishing to find that Mr Parish believes the solution to Bosnia and Herzegovina’s problems is dismemberment, sanctioned by the international community.  Partition in such circumstances historically has always been accompanied by violence and instability.

The solution is for politicians to do what the vast majority of this country’s multi-ethnic population wants them to do – and that is to complete the European integration process, raise living standards and end corruption and poverty.

The Peace Implementation Council Steering Board, meeting in Sarajevo on 18 and 19 November, unanimously called on the BiH authorities to do exactly that.

Bosnia and Herzegovina is not going to be dismembered. The International Community will continue with its present efforts to work with a majority of BiH citizens – not an ethnic majority but a majority that poll after poll finds to be in support of pragmatic and progressive policies aimed at raising living standards and integrating in Euro-Atlantic structures.

Mr Parish falls into the trap of believing that nationalist logic is the only logic that applies in Bosnia and Herzegovina, as though people in this part of the world were different from people anywhere else. He assumes that the current state of affairs that came about after the 2006 general elections is somehow a permanent feature.  He fails to explain how the previous government was able to achieve the most difficult possible reforms and to move BiH forward while the current one, which is marked by chauvinist nationalism, has been unable to do almost anything in the past three years. The truth is that BiH citizens have overcome a great deal in order to come within sight of their goal – to live in a prosperous democracy fully integrated in Europe.

The International Community is not going to abandon them now – and any BiH politician who thinks otherwise is deluding himself.

Frane Maroevic is Director of Communications at the Office of the High Representative in Bosnia.