The issue of national identity is taken seriously by Balkan people – including the least serious among them.
Serbia and Elections
| 06 April 2008 | By Krenar Gashi
There are many paths
that Serbia
can take after May 11 elections. None of them is painless, none of them is
easy.
In case you wonder why I, a Kosovar, would dedicate my third blog article in a row to Serbia, the answer is quite simple. It’s fun! Now that Kosovo is independent, Serbia and especially its political scene is so much fun.
I was just watching the head of the largest party in Serbia opening his election campaign in Kosovo. Tomislav Nikolic of the Serbian Radicals decided to come to a new country in order to open his election campaign. Imagine if Sarkozy would start his campaign in Germany. Could it get any worse? Of course yes! This is Serbia we’re talking about.
Very soon, there will be more and more politicians coming to Kosovo and asking for votes. One could only imagine this war for votes happening in another country. Just like some others might argue that this country is not widely recognised yet. But, whatever… I mean, imagine if Clinton and Obama would be having their debates for presidential elections somewhere in Mexico.
Getting back to Serbia, I bet that Vojislav Kostunica will be the next one to imitate Nikolic. Boris Tadic could follow him. On and on! But why, one could ask. Why would all these politicians come to Kosovo and ask for votes? Kosovo Serbs are not a crucial decision-making factor in Serbia’s elections! Or maybe they are!? Whatever the case is, one thing is certain: this is the last time that Kosovo will be part of their political programmes.
The one who calls himself a radical (Nikolic) and the real radical in Serbia (Kostunica) could win enough votes to form the government. This formula of governance is especially possible after relations between Kostunica’s DSS and Tadic’s DS are not as they were before. Indeed, they are worse than ever. Thus for, a marriage between Nikolic and Kostunica, is quite possible!
But what’s there left for Tadic? There are two paths he could follow. First, do nothing and play dirty like everybody else. Say Kosovo is part of Serbia and win as much votes as possible in order to remain in opposition. Second, boost his European strategy, admit Kosovo is lost and work together with Ceda Jovanovic to educate their voters.
On both options, he will remain in opposition, as the liberals in Serbia are still marginalised. But in case he chooses the second option, this opposition will be stronger. DS, Liberals and the G17 would be able to keep alive the parliamentary life in Serbia.
Avoidance would be if Tadic takes the first option. As President of Serbia he can make pressure for a wider governing coalition, including all major parties. Some kind of a technical government, which would spend all the energy trying to destabilise Kosovo. This government would not be dangerous for Kosovo, as its final status is a done-deal. But it would be very dangerous for Serbia, as its life could be long, meaning painful for the people.
If Tadic goes for option two, and there are only minor chances he would go for that, a radical nationalist government would lead the country towards a new isolation. This, however, wouldn’t go on for too long, as a strong opposition would be able to do another revolution, similar to the October 5 one against Milosevic. Another painful option! I really feel sorry for young liberal Serbs who would have to make another step, because of their old nationalistic compatriots.
Less painful path would be in case radicals, as some may think, would be more liberal once they step in and take control over the government. But this is likely not to happen.
Another impossible option is for three more liberal parties to win more votes. Namely, DS, Liberals and G17, to make over 50% of the votes. This is very impossible, especially having in mind the beginning of the article. Over 100,000 votes of Kosovo Serbs not only that could turn the result around, but they represent a valuable potential for manipulations with votes.
Whatever happens, the Central Election Commission in Serbia would have to spare some of its budget for another round of elections by fall 2008. I’m pretty sure there will be continuous governmental crisis for quite some time. And as Serbs prefer to deal with things in a weird way, such as changing their constitutions more often than their socks (literally translated from Albanian) , I have no doubts that new elections will take place very soon. May 11 elections will not resolve anything in Serbia. Absolutely not!
In case you wonder why I, a Kosovar, would dedicate my third blog article in a row to Serbia, the answer is quite simple. It’s fun! Now that Kosovo is independent, Serbia and especially its political scene is so much fun.
I was just watching the head of the largest party in Serbia opening his election campaign in Kosovo. Tomislav Nikolic of the Serbian Radicals decided to come to a new country in order to open his election campaign. Imagine if Sarkozy would start his campaign in Germany. Could it get any worse? Of course yes! This is Serbia we’re talking about.
Very soon, there will be more and more politicians coming to Kosovo and asking for votes. One could only imagine this war for votes happening in another country. Just like some others might argue that this country is not widely recognised yet. But, whatever… I mean, imagine if Clinton and Obama would be having their debates for presidential elections somewhere in Mexico.
Getting back to Serbia, I bet that Vojislav Kostunica will be the next one to imitate Nikolic. Boris Tadic could follow him. On and on! But why, one could ask. Why would all these politicians come to Kosovo and ask for votes? Kosovo Serbs are not a crucial decision-making factor in Serbia’s elections! Or maybe they are!? Whatever the case is, one thing is certain: this is the last time that Kosovo will be part of their political programmes.
The one who calls himself a radical (Nikolic) and the real radical in Serbia (Kostunica) could win enough votes to form the government. This formula of governance is especially possible after relations between Kostunica’s DSS and Tadic’s DS are not as they were before. Indeed, they are worse than ever. Thus for, a marriage between Nikolic and Kostunica, is quite possible!
But what’s there left for Tadic? There are two paths he could follow. First, do nothing and play dirty like everybody else. Say Kosovo is part of Serbia and win as much votes as possible in order to remain in opposition. Second, boost his European strategy, admit Kosovo is lost and work together with Ceda Jovanovic to educate their voters.
On both options, he will remain in opposition, as the liberals in Serbia are still marginalised. But in case he chooses the second option, this opposition will be stronger. DS, Liberals and the G17 would be able to keep alive the parliamentary life in Serbia.
Avoidance would be if Tadic takes the first option. As President of Serbia he can make pressure for a wider governing coalition, including all major parties. Some kind of a technical government, which would spend all the energy trying to destabilise Kosovo. This government would not be dangerous for Kosovo, as its final status is a done-deal. But it would be very dangerous for Serbia, as its life could be long, meaning painful for the people.
If Tadic goes for option two, and there are only minor chances he would go for that, a radical nationalist government would lead the country towards a new isolation. This, however, wouldn’t go on for too long, as a strong opposition would be able to do another revolution, similar to the October 5 one against Milosevic. Another painful option! I really feel sorry for young liberal Serbs who would have to make another step, because of their old nationalistic compatriots.
Less painful path would be in case radicals, as some may think, would be more liberal once they step in and take control over the government. But this is likely not to happen.
Another impossible option is for three more liberal parties to win more votes. Namely, DS, Liberals and G17, to make over 50% of the votes. This is very impossible, especially having in mind the beginning of the article. Over 100,000 votes of Kosovo Serbs not only that could turn the result around, but they represent a valuable potential for manipulations with votes.
Whatever happens, the Central Election Commission in Serbia would have to spare some of its budget for another round of elections by fall 2008. I’m pretty sure there will be continuous governmental crisis for quite some time. And as Serbs prefer to deal with things in a weird way, such as changing their constitutions more often than their socks (literally translated from Albanian) , I have no doubts that new elections will take place very soon. May 11 elections will not resolve anything in Serbia. Absolutely not!
2008-04-06 16:53:27