Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, Timid Villagers

Old political tiger, former Republika Srpska Assembly Speaker and president of the Serb Democratic Party, SDS, Dragan Kalinic, may be returning to Bosnia’s politics after he was pardoned by Bosnia’s High Representative Valentin Inzko.

New dragon, the current undisputed leader of Republika Srpska, its Premier and president of the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats, SNSD, Milorad Dodik seem to be getting somewhat nervous over the news.

So far, Dodik himself refrained from any comments, but statements from his party associates show first signs of anxiety.

And there may be some reason for that. Ever since taking power in Republika Srpska after 2006 general elections, Dodik and his SNSD have had almost uncontested rule over their entity and a major say in the state level institutions.

The key for their success was radical, hard-line nationalist rhetoric that has since 2006 established Dodik and SNSD as the biggest, baddest wolf on the block and the staunchest defender of Bosnian Serb national interests.

Not even numerous accusations and allegations of Dodik’s possible corruption and misuse of office, as well as the ongoing criminal investigation into several dubious construction and privatization deals, can affect his good standing among many Bosnian Serb voters. All seems to be allowed as long as one is successful in what is perceived as good defense of Bosnian Serb national rights.

Yet Dodik’s uncontested rule, as well as lack of greater public interest in his business deals, was mainly enabled by the lack of any serious political opposition in Republika Srpska.

Suffering from years of international sanctions and internal reforms carried out by its previous leader, Dragan Cavic, SDS remained anemic and without clear political platform. SDS’s current president Mladen Bosic seemed to be unable to decide whether to fight Dodik with even stronger radical rhetoric, or whether to play “mister nice guy” and support some more progressive reforms.

This indecisiveness and lack of clear vision resulted in further erosion of SDS personnel and popularity. It also hatched first ideas and appetites for a new leadership change. First such attempts were unsuccessful, but this is something that could change if Kalinic decides to get back into politics and into his old SDS party.

Another former SDS president, Dragan Cavic, also indicated that he would be more than willing to accept Kalinic into his recently established Democratic Party, DS.
Kalinic so far failed to disclose his future plans.

Some people believe that only a lunatic would leave what appears to be a happy family life and good medical practice in Serbia for the wild and dangerous Bosnian political scene.

Yet the past experiences teach us that Bosnian, or any other politics defy normal logic, so many eyes are still focused on Kalinic, expecting his announcement.

While some politicians and analysts believe that Kalinic cannot pose any threat to Dodik, others disagree.

Kalinic, after long expulsion from politics, cannot do much alone. Yet over time, and if joined by other opposition leaders such as Cavic and Mladen Ivanic from Party of Democratic Progress, this alliance could start nibbling on Dodik’s huge advantage.

This eventual alliance would probably by the 2010 general elections not be able to seriously jeopardize SNSD, but they could certainly muster between 10-20 percent of Republika Srpska vote, which would be enough to make Dodik’s life – and the entire political scene both in Republika Srpska as well as on the state level – much more difficult and complicated.

That would then open up a possibility for various new coalitions among other Bosniak and Bosnian Croat parties. This all would maybe not be able to topple Dodik immediately, but his SNSD would no longer enjoy the overwhelming and uncontested majorities in the entity and state parliaments.

This may be the reason why Dodik’s political and media lieutenants already seem to be initiating “blame and shame” campaign against Kalinic. One of the main weapons is development of conspiracy theories according to which Kalinic has been pardoned at this particular moment exactly because the west hopes he would be able to bring Dodik’s final demise.

The OHR has officially and unofficially denied any such rumors and there is no evidence that Inzko is willing to use such plots in order to manipulate local political scene.

However, many international officials in the past showed that they were not stranger s to such “commando” tactics. Hence, nobody would be much surprised if Kalinic – if he decides to get back to politics at all –a would suddenly start getting support from unexpected places.

While both local media and international diplomatic circles continue contemplating whether and how Dodik and his SNSD party could be removed from power or at least tames somewhat, and while “Kalinic effect” is slowly becoming calculated into those calculations, neither media nor diplomats seem to be thinking about the effect that Kalinic’s return may have on the ordinary people in Republika Srpska.

While Kalinic’s return would by itself bring new complications and confusions, his eventual success would probably come only under the price that he imposes himself as the bigger and stauncher defender of Bosnian Serb national interest.

That could imply new heights in the radical, hard-line rhetoric ahead of the next year’s elections.

This entire situation reminds me of one Zen-kind of story I’ve heard from somebody, somewhere and sometime ago.

The story was about a village which had a problem with a fox that was pillaging its chickens.

Eventually the village decided to call a wolf to drive away the fox. The wolf did it, but afterwards it stayed near the village and started butchering its cattle. The village eventually decided to call a tiger, to get rid of the wolf. And the story went on just as the village’s problem continued growing.