
Srecko Latal
A fast-approaching thunderstorm rumbled outside. Heavy and ominous darkness crept slowly into the room. Pressure and tension were almost palpable in the air.
I sat by the table and spread newspapers around me, just like an old magician would do with his tarot cards or tealeaves. Like a deck of jinxed cards, whichever newspapers I flipped through showed one bad item of news after another.
“Four ethnic incidents reported over the weekend.”
“Bosnian Serb and Bosniak (Muslim) officials snub talks with US Congressional Delegation.”
“New diplomatic scandal; Bosnian official publicly accuses highest US diplomats in the country of plotting his removal.”
“Bosnian Serbs, Croats and Bosniaks go to the state Constitutional Court over the names of two towns.”
“Bosniak representatives threaten to block the work of Republika Srpska Assembly.”
Individually, any of these would probably not mean much to me on a good day. But when put together and joined with at least three more years of other bad news, they start forming a picture of a real disaster in the making.
It is now evident that Bosnia’s leaders have dropped any pretence of attempting to negotiate and reach compromises on any given issue. Instead, they are now focused on humiliating, provoking and hurting each other in every possible way.
In this situation, Bosnia’s hopes once again depend on the international community, namely the EU and US, and on their ability and readiness to guarantee the country’s territorial and constitutional integrity until local leaders find their way back to the negotiation table.
Alas, there is a growing evidence that the EU and US are getting further and further away from understanding Balkan issues and knowing how to deal with them.
One such example, the most feared piece of news of this week, is expected on Wednesday. The EU Commission is to present its official recommendations, allowing visa-free travel to the Schengen zone for Serbia, Macedonia and Montenegro, while excluding Albania and Bosnia.
These recommendations will then go to the EU Council of Ministers, which will eventually decide on whether to accept them, request changes, delay a decision, or simply turn them down. This decision will have thorough and far-reaching effects for all of the Balkans, but for the EU as well.
Even the European media and officials have repeatedly admitted that a visa-free regime is a highly political issue and not a purely technical decision, as some EU officials try to assert.
In the middle of Serbia’s elections last year, the EU offered the promise of a visa-free regime to Serbian citizens in exchange for their votes for the pro-Western candidate, Boris Tadic. At this stage, all discussion about technical conditioning fell apart.
What remains is to assess the damage that these recommendations – if they are adopted – will have on Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Balkans and Europe.
Since most Bosnian Croats already have Croatian passports and since Republika Srpska residents as of the last year can apply for and obtain Serbian passports, a visa-free regime for Bosnia would affect the majority of Bosniaks and those Bosnian Serbs, Jews and others that live in the Bosniak-Croat Federation.
Hence, the EU is sending several very negative messages to Bosnia. Brussels is rewarding Bosnian Serbs, some of whom participated in the Srebrenica massacre, while it at the same time punishing the victims of Srebrenica.
The EU, in effect, is allowing the last remaining big war-time suspect who remains in hiding, the former Bosnian Serb commander Ratko Mladic, to freely travel to Berlin, Paris or Rome.
The EU is also telling those Bosnian Serbs that live in the Federation that they are better off moving to the Republika Srpska, hence completing the ethnic cleansing of the country. It is also telling Bosniaks (and the rest of the world) that Muslims are not welcome in Europe.
By sending out these messages, the EU risks much more than accusations of immoral decision-making.
By moving ahead with such a visa-free regime, the EU only confirms that it does not understand the political realities in its midst. At the very least, it is sowing the seeds of long-term destabilization in its own back yard.
Welcome to united Europe – united in disunity.
2009-07-14 17:59:37