No New War in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Srecko Latal

It appeared to be almost a done deal, and the only remaining questions were around technicalities – how and when that would be done. 

Then Dodik met Stuart Jones, the deputy US Assistant Secretary in charge of the Balkans, and out from the meeting stepped a seemingly different man. The “new” Dodik stressed that the constitutional order of Bosnia and Herzegovina can be changed only through regular parliamentary procedures and that there are no “adventurers” in Republika Srpska who would attempt anything irrationally. 

Furthermore, Dodik appeared to be reconciled with the fact that the Office of the High Representative will remain in the country for some time and admitted that Republika Srpska has “no influence” either on the future modalities of the international presence in the country, nor on the selection of a new High Representative.

Only yesterday, Dodik was the one who was calling for the OHR’s immediate departure and insisted that a new High Representative “must be acceptable” to all sides in Bosnia and Herzegovina. To surprised journalists it seemed that when Dodik walked out of the meeting with the US diplomat he was a different man from the one who came to the meeting.

This shift in Dodik’s attitude was so welcomed by the local public so that even the most ardent subscribers to the Balkan conspiracy theory rulebook failed to notice similarities with some well known movies such as “Clone Wars” or “Invasion of the Body Snatchers.”

Jokes aside, this shift in Dodik’s attitude has offered a brief respite to a Bosnian public that was already on the edge of its nerves due to the prolonged political deadlock and the fast-approaching economic and social crisis.

The situation had recently escalated to the point where some “war mongering” journalists and analysts (like me) dared to notice that 13 years after the end of the war, the people of Bosnia and Herzegovina are becoming afraid of even a glimmer of a distant possibility of a new conflict.

While opening up of the “war option” topic had triggered mixed reactions from locals, media, civil society and politicians, nobody could provide an answer to “Bosnia’s million dollar question”: Who or what can stand in the way of Milorad Dodik if he decides to separate Republika Srpska from the rest of the country?

The “new attitude” displayed by Dodik after his meeting with Jones gave us what could be a glimpse of an answer to that question. 

In the situation where divisions within European countries and the weakening of their military presence in the Balkans has effectively deprived the OHR of its governing s powers, Jones proved once again that only the Americans have the political clout to halt what until only yesterday appeared to be Bosnia’s inevitable stumble into the abyss.

Yet, knowing Bosnia’s decayed political scene, politicians’ radical rhetoric will surely return unless both the US and EU follow up on whatever Jones said to Dodik and the other political leaders he met with during his stay in Bosnia.