Balkan Conspiracy Theories Revisited

Srecko Latal

People in the Balkans always seemed prone to conspiracy theories, probably because of all those “historic events” and “global power plays” which in the past centuries played out and marched through this region, leaving nothing but death and misery behind.

With my professional and personal inclinations and orientations, I was never inclined towards contemplating or discussing about anything which I know will never be proven beyond the point of doubt. Hence, I usually stayed away from such topics. Yet this one hit me square in the face.
Criminal charges which were reportedly pressed against top Bosnian Serb officials last week have singlehandedly delivered so much damage to this country, that it is impossible even for me to think that it all happened just by accident.

Let me be clear about one thing; when I comment these alleged charges, I do not question their content but the way how they came about – in apparent violation of regular procedures and circumventing Bosnian Serb officials in both State Investigation and Protection Agency and the Office of the Public Prosecutor.

Hence, the fury displayed by Bosnian Serb leadership is fully understandable. Bosniak (Bosnian Muslim) and Croat officials would probably act in the same way had such a thing happened to them, behind their backs.

So, if you wonder about the damage I have mentioned earlier, here are some of the consequences of this development that I can perceive;

This situation has seriously damaged already fragile trust among representatives of the three main ethnic groups in joint institutions and showed how ineffective they really are. In addition, a weak resemblance of political opposition, which has started forming over the past few weeks in the Serb-dominated Bosnian entity of Republika Srpska, is now effectively silenced since they all have to rally by the government in the situation where the core of Bosnian Serb existence is perceived to be threatened.

Furthermore, this apparently mishandled fraud probe has undermined any serious such attempts in future. Even anecdotal evidence shows that some of the key construction and development projects, which have been launched or undertaken over the past few years in Republika Srpska, deserve serious and thorough investigation. Yet even the most serious and professional investigation in future will likely be declared to be politically or ethnically motivated. Any findings of any serious probe may be dismissed in the same fashion.

But our troubles go even deeper. This situation has now given Bosnian Serb leadership carte blanche to pull out from those same institutions – thus blocking their work for a foreseeable future – or demand reforms that would take out all foreigners who are employed in Bosnia’s judicial system.

This situation has also halted, or maybe completely obliterated political negotiations of the so-called “Prud group” – leaders of the three ruling national parties. There was much criticism against this group, their concrete results deliverables (or the lack of those) from other political parties and a part of civil society and media.

Yet I have to say that I found this initiative (only as an initiative), quite positive. Namely, I think that the situation in Bosnia has become so sour and bad that even the mere fact that leaders of the three main national parties are meeting, is a positive signal. At the end of this sad list,I would add that the scandal with the fraud probe effectively gives Milorad Dodik a carte blanche and broad public support to go even further and further escalate already deep crisis. Words like referendum or new violence immediately come to my mind.

So, tell me and be honest: looking at the list of the possible damage of the one mishandled fraud probe, would you think that it all happened only by accident and wouldn’t your appetite for conspiracy theories go wild?

Dodik has already publicly said in which conspiracy theory he believes. He thinks that the deputy High Representative, US diplomat Raffi Gregorian is the “big bad wolf” who has instigated this probe in an attempt to get poor Milorad “Little Red Riding Hood” Dodik out of the picture.

Yet I have also heard of another conspiracy theory, which investigates possibility that Bosnian Serbs have arranged this by themselves since Dodik has all to win and nothing to lose from the situation like this. This indeed is a conspiracy theory behind conspiracy theory.