Initial Results Indicate Changes to Bosnia’s Political Scene

The preliminary results, announced several hours after the polls closed and with 80 percent of ballots for the Bosniak seat in the presidency counted, showed Bakir Izetbegovic of the Party of Democratic Action, SDA, in the lead with the support of 34.65 percent of voters.

Izetbegovic was followed close behind by media mogul turned politician Fahrudin Radoncic, who had 30.26 percent of votes.

Incumbent Haris Silajdzic, who was heavily tipped to win the race, secured only 25.23 percent of the vote, according to the initial results announced by the country’s central electoral commission after midnight on Sunday.

Izetbegovic, who is the son of SDA founder and Bosnia’s wartime president Alija Izetbegovic, stated repeatedly during the campaign that finding a compromise between the Bosniak, Croat and Serb communities was the only way to achieve necessary reforms in the country and push it forward on the path to European Union membership.

This was in stark contrast to the uncompromising stance of Haris Silajdzic, the leader of the Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina, SzBiH, who continues to insist on greater centralization under terms rejected by a large majority of Bosnian Serbs.

Under the Dayton peace agreement which ended Bosnia's 1992-95 war, the country was split into two highly autonomous entities, the Serb majority Republika Srpska and the Bosniak-Croat federation, linked by weak central institutions.

Virulent nationalism and calls for the secession of Bosnia's Serb dominated part trumpeted by the region’s outgoing Prime Minister Milorad Dodik and his Alliance of Independent Social Democrats, SNSD, were largely expected to help Silajdzic secure re-election to the Bosniak seat in the central presidency.

However, Silajdzic’s apparent crushing defeat, including by Radoncic who had entered the political scene only shortly before the elections, might signal that Bosniaks have rejected his rigid approach as unproductive.

In fact, ever since the 2006 general elections propelled both Silajdzic and Dodik into office, ethnic tensions in the country have been growing and even the most uncontroversial reforms have been stopped due to the antagonism between the two men.

In the race for the Croat member of the tripartite presidency, incumbent Zeljko Komsic of the multiethnic Social Democratic Party secured 55.64 per cent of the vote with 75 per cent of the ballots counted. His challenger from the strongest Bosnian Croat party, Borjana Kristo, secured 22.9 per cent.

Komsic's landslide victory is due to his cross-ethnic support in the Croat-Bosniak federation, where Croats are believed to account for less than a quarter of the population. It provoked strong reaction from Kristo's party, the Croat Democratic Union (HDZ). HDZ leader Dragan Covic said the result showed that Croats "must fight for our own entity, a Croat entity".

Voters in Republika Srpska elect the Serb member of the central presidency, while those in the federation elect the Bosniak and Croat members. While candidates in the Federation must run according to their ethnicity, the voting is not ethnically divided, so a Bosniak may vote for the Croat candidate and the other way around.

Ever since Komsic, who explicitly rejects nationalism, was first elected in 2006 to fill the Croat slot in the presidency, the HDZ has been challenging his right to represent the Croat people, pointing to the fact that both he and his multiethnic party are significantly more popular with Bosniaks.

Preliminary results for the Serb member of the tripartite presidency also came as a surprise. After 74.6 per cent of the ballots for the Serb seat in the presidency were counted, the SNDS candidate Nebojsa Radmanovic led the race with 49.84 per cent of the vote.

However, he was trailed closely by Mladen Ivanic with 47.07 per cent. The more moderate Ivanic was considered a long shot for this post, but his strong showing challenges the view that Serbs almost unanimously support the SNSD’s hard-line policy.

In the elections on Sunday, Bosnians also voted for the country’s central parliament and the parliaments of its two highly autonomous parts.

Voters in Republika Srpska were also electing their region’s president, while those in the Federation cast ballots for the local parliaments in its ten cantons.

Voting followed a nearly month-long campaign marked by sharp nationalist rhetoric and the failure by most contenders to address the country's burning social and economic problems.

The central electoral commission said that 56.28 percent of the country’s 3.1 million eligible voters had cast their ballots, or about three per cent more than the figure in the 2006 general elections, which also came as a surprise as most expected low voter turnout.

Higher voter turnout is generally believed to signal greater support for moderate parties, as the nationalists who have led the country for most of the past 15 years enjoy the loyal support of a core group of voters who regularly cast their ballots in the country's elections. Greater support for non-nationalist candidates may indicate that more moderate voters chose to go to the polls in this year's elections.

The central electoral commission said that other preliminary results will be announced Monday.