The False Threat of Secession in Bosnia

Milorad Dodik. Photo: Anadolu Agency

One of the most important maxims for anyone engaged in policy analysis is the following: “What people perceive to be real is real in its consequences.” It does not matter if people have the wrong information about a situation. If they think their information is accurate, it will guide their actions. To this end, managing serious political problems can sometimes, at least in part, be a question of challenging received wisdom and setting the record straight.

One place where this seems particularly relevant is Bosnia and Herzegovina. There is no doubt that the country faces huge challenges. However, what has become increasingly worrying is the way in which Milorad Dodik, the leader of Republika Srpska, RS, is openly stoking tensions in the country by repeatedly threatening to create an independent Bosnian Serb state.

This has a deeply destabilising effect on the country. Indeed, some have suggested that the country may even be on the brink of renewed conflict. Although international officials involved with the country are rather more cautious, they note growing concerns in certain quarters over the possibility of RS independence.

In reality, such fears are wholly unfounded. The simple truth is that the RS cannot and will not become independent for a number of reasons.

First and foremost, the international community strongly resists unilateral acts of secession. There are enormous political barriers facing any territory seeking to secede from a country without permission. Since 1945, just one country has managed to unilaterally secede and eventually join the United Nations. That was Bangladesh, which split from Pakistan. Even then, it only managed to join the UN with Pakistan’s acceptance.

For further proof of just how difficult it can be, consider the case of Kosovo. Despite unstinting support from the United States, Britain and France, it is still only recognised by just over half the members of the UN a full eight years after it declared independence from Serbia, in February 2008. Although it has managed to join a number of key international bodies, such as the World Bank and IMF, and will take part in this year’s Olympic Games, it is still fighting hard to gain acceptance. Its failed attempt to join UNESCO last year is a good case in point.

Of course, Republika Srprska is not Kosovo. If it were to declare independence unilaterally, it would face massive and unrelenting opposition from the United States and the European Union. They would make sure that it would gain no traction on the international stage.

Balanced against this, some would argue that the RS would have Russia’s support. This is unlikely. Even if Moscow were minded to support secession, and there is no evidence that it would, it seems hard to believe that it would place its credibility on the line by doing so. Many years after Russia recognised South Ossetia and Abkhazia, it has only persuaded four other countries to follow its lead. Even its closest allies, such as Belarus, have refused to accept their statehood. Moscow is hardly likely to want to embarrass itself again by endorsing a step by the RS that would so obviously be illegal and would have few, if any, supporters.

Meanwhile, and perhaps even more importantly, any attempt at secession would be strongly opposed by Serbia. Belgrade knows that any support for an attempted secession by RS would end its EU accession hopes. Serbia has not spent the past few years gradually loosening its ties to Kosovo in the name of EU membership, just to throw all that away over Bosnia. Meanwhile, it is noticeable that Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic has been vocal in his support for Bosnia’s territorial integrity. In such circumstances, Russia would look odd being more Serbian than the Serbs.

Serbia’s lack of support would also be crucial for another reason. If an attempt at secession is to have any chance of success in the longer term, the seceding territory needs to have some sort of access to the wider world. In the event that it even tries to break away, Republika Srpska would inevitably face significant reprisals. Its borders would be closed and some sort of sanctions would almost certainly be imposed. It would need a lifeline. Serbia would be the only state able to provide this. Without it, RS would be doomed to rapid economic collapse.

At this point, some might say that even if Dodik does not plan on actual secession, the mere threat of a referendum on independence is also causing instability. This is true. However, if we accept that a unilateral declaration of independence cannot happen, then the threat of a vote on secession should not be given undue significance – especially as such referendums have no weight in international law. A unilateral declaration of independence made after a vote on secession, even if carried by 100 per cent of the population, is no less illegitimate or illegal than a declaration of independence made without one.

None of this is to say that fears about the consequences of secession are irrational. They are perfectly justified. Rather, any fears that RS will ever actually manage to secede are misplaced. The reality is that any threat of secession by Republika Srpska is meaningless. Even if a declaration of independence were to occur it would be doomed to failure.

The harsh reality is that Bosnia faces many dangers. However, the prospect of unilateral secession is not one of them. This needs to be made widely known. Giving credibility to the idea that RS could conceivably secede presents a far greater risk to the country than the reality of it happening. After all, what people perceive to be real is real in its consequences.

This article is based on the following report, published by LSEE-Research on South East Europe at the LSE: ‘The Hollow Threat of Secession in Bosnia and Herzegovina: Legal and Political Impediments to a Unilateral Declaration of Independence by Republika Srpska’

 Dr James Ker-Lindsay is Senior Visiting Fellow at the European Institute, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and a research associate at the Centre for International Studies, Department of Politics and International Relations at Oxford University. He has written extensively on the politics and international relations of South East Europe and is currently finishing an introductory guide to secession and state create creation for Oxford University Press. He on Twitter @JamesKerLindsay