Experts Dampen Macedonian Ruling Euphoria

Macedonian delegation during the reading of the judgment | Photo by: ICJ

The International Court of Justice, ICJ, ruled on Monday that Greece had breached an interim deal, brokered by the UN in 1995, when it blocked Macedonia’s attempt to join NATO in 2008.

The Hague court upheld two of three requests by the Macedonian side. It did not accept Macedonia’s demand that Greece be ordered to end its blockade of Macedonian entry into the EU and NATO.

The ICJ’s decision is final and binding, with no right of appeal for either party. However, the court does not have any power to enforce its ruling.

Denko Maleski, a former Macedonian foreign minister, cautioned against triumphalism in Skopje, saying the judgement had only returned the name dispute from “the legal to the political track”.

However, the Macedonian media has hailed “a great diplomatic victory over Greece” and announced celebratory rallies at town squares across the country.

Macedonia sued Greece in 2008 for blocking its NATO accession. The ICJ judgement has shown that the Greek move violated the terms of a 1995 UN accord regulating relations between the two countries.

The ICJ case is the latest turn in a long-running dispute between Macedonia and Greece over how the former Yugoslav republic describes itself.

Greece insists that its neighbour’s use of name, “Macedonia”, implies a territorial claim to its own northern province of the same name. Macedonia on the other hand sees the demand to change its name as an insult and an attack on the country's identity.

Maleski says the judgment will have little effect on ongoing UN-brokered negotiations between Macedonia and Greece.

He said the court’s refusal to order Greece from thwarting Macedonian accession attempts in future was a lesson that “international law is not strong enough to impose [itself] on sovereign states”.

“I am afraid that we have wasted… time and effort [on the ICJ suit] and that we will again have to find a solution through some sort of compromise, as part of the political UN-brokered name negotiations” , Maleski says.

Greek delegation in the Court | Phto by: ICJ

Richard Howitt, the European Parliament’s Rapporteur on Macedonia, said it was time for both parties to show responsibility and restraint, moving “beyond the adversarial setting of the courtroom”.

“This ruling does not in itself provide the solution but perhaps may bring a solution nearer,” he said. Howitt told Balkan Insight that he believed both sides were “very, very close to a solution [in the UN-brokered talks]”.
 
However, he warned that public opinion in both countries remained a problem. It would be hardest to lay “the last brick in the wall”, he said.

Nikola Dimitrov, Macedonia’s representative before the ICJ, said the judgement was historically significant.

“This decision means the preservation of the [UN] interim accord as a key document in the bilateral relationship [between Macedonia and Greece] and it is a good chance for both countries to proceed. We hope NATO will respect the decision,” he said.

Other Macedonian analysts also welcomed the ICJ ruling, but said it did not guarantee an easier route into NATO, or indeed, the upholding of the 1995 UN-brokered agreement.

Risto Nikovski, a diplomat and former advisor to the Macedonian President Gjorge Ivanov, says the judgment will boost Skopje’s case.

“We now have to start a diplomatic offensive using the ICJ judgment as a strong argument to tip the terms of the agreement [in Macedonia’s favor],” Nikovski said.

However he added that it would be very hard to convince NATO to change its mind.
 
In 2008, NATO said Macedonia would join the alliance as soon as it had solved the name dispute with Greece.

“The next NATO summit [due in early 2012] will not change the reality,” Nikovski said.

Former Macedonian Foreign Minister, Sloban Casule said Macedonia had received “moral and legal satisfaction” from the ICJ ruling.

“Macedonian diplomacy is not a miracle worker but it is already lobbying for its stance,” Casule told Balkan Insight. He said the “political will of the international community” would ultimately determine whether the UN accord was applied.