It’s Time Bosnians Declared What They Want

Bosnia and Herzegovina has been in a slow-motion crisis for so long that it has become part of normal life. A year has passed without any sign of a state-level government and on the surface life continues, but deep down people are increasingly divided about where the country is heading.

Ethnic and social tensions are rising. Over the past few weeks there have been four violent clashes between football hooligans in different towns, the last on 6 October in Sarajevo, when supporters of the local team Zeljeznicar and Hajduk from Split in Croatia clashed in the city centre. 

Scores of people and police were injured and numerous cars burned and upturned in one of the worst such incidents in many years.

Strikes are also spreading in firms, with a street protest planned by NGOs on 15 October in Sarajevo and few other cities against the prolonged political, economic and social crisis.

Though the environment is very different from the late 1980s and early 1990s, the combination of violence on football fields and unrest on the streets is eerily reminiscent of the final days of Yugoslavia.

Still, local politicians appear unperturbed, civil society is inert, the international community is divided and the local media are as divisive as ever.

The EU has just published its 2011 Progress Report for BiH, which shows it halting or slipping in political, economic and all other key areas. It is the worst progress report BiH has received so far, so bad was it in fact that the EU should have called it the deterioration instead of the progress report. 

Incredibly, some politicians are trying to persuade their electorates that the recession is about to end and that a brighter future awaits.

For the past year my colleagues and I have toured this country, identifying problems on different administrative levels and exploring their origins.

We spoke with people from all sides: ruling and opposition parties, urban and rural, dignitaries and ordinary folks alike. We published our findings about the situation in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina [one of the two entities] in the report “A Parallel Crisis” last September. We released our findings about the country’s other entity, the Republika Srpska, in “What Does Republika Srpska Want?” last week.

Our latest report concludes that the Bosnian Serb leaders’ harsh political discourse has succeeded in guaranteeing that no local or international counterpart questions the entity’s existence any more. Yet this has come at a high price.

Today, its international image is badly tarnished; its immediate neighbours in the Federation are fuming; foreign investment has dwindled down to almost zero, and corruption, cronyism and nepotism are rampant. Republika Srpska now faces critical economic and social challenges that threaten not only Serbs’ but everyone’s national interests. 

The leaders of the Republika Srpska have brought their own entity and the rest of the country to the brink of catastrophe by toying with nationalist sentiments, mocking international powers and weakening state institutions.

Yet the Serb-led entity is not the only one at fault. It still takes at least two to tango, but in the case of Bosnia it takes three, four or sometimes even five. So instead of a tango we end up with the local circular kolo with each dancer pulling in a different direction.

Croat national parties are increasingly flirting with the dangerous idea of a separate Croat entity focused in the south of the country, though this would largely isolate Bosnian Croats who live outside Herzegovina. Bosniaks hate the idea, and it has no international support, but Bosnian Croat leaders seem not to care.

While Croats and Serbs are mainly focused on their national interests, most Bosniaks, as well as others who identify themselves with Bosnia and Herzegovina, want to build up a civic state. Most have no time for the views of most Croats and Serbs who prefer ethnic-based entities. Nobody is willing to open a discussion on how to merge the civic and ethnic concept in a democratic society.  

I believe that all this fuss about ethnic versus national allegiance, and central state versus entities, is set up by politicians to disguise their protection of their personal and economic interests.

Bosnia’s political elites have been rallying in defence of what they claim to be higher national or ideological interests since 1992, but do they really care about them? And what has this high-minded nationalism produced so far but misery and tragedy for all ethnic groups?

Nevertheless, three and a half years of war and 15 years of subsequent political strife have affected people across Bosnia. They no longer share a common view of the country’s future or structure and some do not even accept the country’s existence anymore.

While traveling throughout Bosnia I have seen that Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats still have much to share. They all care first and foremost about their identity but none wants violence again. I

f their identity is respected and accepted by others, they all shift their focus to bread-and-butter issues, such as security, stability, jobs and better living standards. They reject the political aspirations of their ethnic counterparts but welcome them as friends and neighbours.  

But six years of political, economic and social tensions are taking their toll and the country seems to be approaching economic and social, if not political and administrative, collapse. The economy is halting and the entities are taking out new loans to continue to pay salaries, pensions and social benefits. The country is facing new difficult economic, social and financial challenges in 2012 when repayment of large international loans is due to start.

As the situation seems to go from bad to worse, it is time for the citizens of Bosnia to think about whether they care more for the packaging than for the content, and tell their leaders they want not only their national but also their economic and social interests protected.

It is also high time for local leaders, NGOs, intellectuals and media to provide citizens with what they need, and stop promising what they cannot deliver. Otherwise all may end up with what they want least: a collapsed state and economy, and maybe even more conflict. 

Srecko Latal is a Sarajevo- based analyst with the international think tank the International Crisis Group, ICG