Crisis Group Addresses North Kosovo Issue

While the two sides will address regional cooperation, communications, freedom of movement and the rule-of-law in the talks that began in Brussels last week, Belgrade and Pristina should use the EU-facilitated talks to consider autonomy for the North in exchange for Serbia’s recognition of Kosovo statehood, the latest report from the leading international think tank reads.

The report, entitled “North Kosovo: Dual Sovereignty in Practice” and released on Monday, claims that the northern part of Kosovo will remain for some time under the dual sovereignty of Serbia and Kosovo, and notes that the region is likely to be the main obstacle for Serbia and Kosovo's EU bids.

The group recognises that the political will for resolving the question of the north may not be found in the near future, and encourages the sides to prevent the dispute from blocking progress in other areas. The report calls on Pristina and Belgrade to "seek flexible, interim solutions to improve law enforcement, customs collection, and allocation of financial aid in the North".

Crisis Group describes the attempts of the government in Pristina to gain control over the northern part of Kosovo, seeking to rid the region of Serbian institutions and offer a degree of autonomy, as suggested under the Ahtisaari plan.

Despite Pristina's efforts, the north, which is mainly inhabited by local Serbs who see the region as their last stand, remains under the firm influence of Serbia.

The Crisis Group writes that "Belgrade will continue to use its influence in the North to reach its primary goal, regaining the region as a limited victory to compensate for losing the rest of its former province.’

Though Belgrade and the political elite in the north belong to different parties and are bitter rivals, the report reads, they share one common interest: keeping Pristina out and blocking any international initiative that could strengthen common Kosovo institutions, notably police and courts.

“Two other groups, former local leaders who retain strong influence behind the scenes and an organised crime underworld focused on smuggling, share this one overriding goal,” report reads.

In addition, Serbia’s money to the north, which stands at €200 million annually, down from over €300 million in the middle of the previous decade, is seen as a major obstacle to the region’s integration into Kosovo.

“As long as Serbian money sustains their way of life, Northerners have little incentive to compromise,” the report states.

While the region is often reputed to be anarchic and dominated by gangsters and corrupt politicians, the ICG writes that the real problems are contraband and intimidation directed at political and business rivals and anyone associated with Pristina.

It notes, meanwhile, that the Albanian-Serb networks function well on smuggling goods, especially diesel fuel from Serbia via the north to southern Kosovo, free of duty and tax.

In its conclusions, the ICG claims that carrying on with the status quo in the north is the most likely option, and the lesser evil.

While a longterm solution may be to allow greater autonomy for Kosovo's north in exchange for Belgrade recognition, the Crisis Group notes that this option seems unlikely at the moment.

“But neither Belgrade nor Northern Kosovo Serbs are ready to sign on, and the international community has few levers with which to exert pressure,” the report reads.